Eastern Congo, 2026: Three Decades of War, $24 Trillion in Minerals, No Peace

Eastern Congo has been at war for thirty years. Since Laurent-Désiré Kabila marched on Kinshasa in 1996, the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri have become a laboratory of modern conflict: a resource war disguised as ethnic strife, funded by coltan, cobalt, and gold, prosecuted by foreign armies and proxy militias, and enabled by multinational corporations that buy the minerals and governments that pretend not to notice.

For Justine Masika, a 52-year-old women's rights activist in Goma, the war has no beginning and no end. She was 22 when the First Congo War started in 1996. She was 29 when the Second Congo War killed an estimated 5.4 million people between 1998 and 2003. She was 47 when the M23 rebels returned in 2021, backed by Rwandan troops. This month, she told researchers from the Kivu Security Tracker that 127 women had been raped in her province in March 2026 alone—nearly all by armed groups fighting over mining territories.

The war that never ended has now killed more than 6 million people, displaced 7.2 million, and turned a region sitting on an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth into one of the poorest and most violent places on Earth.

A War Economy Built on Minerals

The war in eastern Congo is not primarily about ethnicity, though ethnic grievances are weaponized. It is about money. The region holds 70 percent of the world's cobalt reserves, essential for electric vehicle batteries. It produces 15 percent of global tantalum, sold as coltan and used in smartphones. It has gold, tin, tungsten, and diamonds.

According to UN Group of Experts reports published annually between 2012 and 2024, armed groups in North Kivu and Ituri control at least 60 percent of artisanal mining sites. The M23 rebel group, which has captured swathes of North Kivu since November 2021, now controls the Rubaya coltan mining area, one of the richest deposits in the world. A December 2023 UN report documented M23 taxing coltan exports at $300 per kilogram, generating an estimated $800,000 per month.

Rwanda has been the primary external actor. Since 1996, Rwandan forces have intervened in Congo at least four times. The most recent intervention began in 2021, when Rwandan Defence Force troops crossed into North Kivu to support M23. Satellite imagery analyzed by the Enough Project in 2024 identified Rwandan military camps within 15 kilometers of Goma. Rwandan President Paul Kagame has consistently denied direct involvement, calling the accusations "ridiculous." But on March 15, 2026, Human Rights Watch published testimony from 23 Congolese miners who described Rwandan soldiers operating alongside M23 fighters at the Rubaya coltan mines.

The Second Congo War: Africa's World War

The war began in 1996 when Laurent-Désiré Kabila, backed by Rwanda and Uganda, overthrew Mobutu Sese Seko, who had ruled Zaire for 32 years. Two years later, Rwanda and Uganda turned on Kabila, sparking the Second Congo War in August 1998. It lasted until 2003 and drew in nine African nations and at least 25 armed groups. Zimbabwe, Angola, and Namibia backed the Congolese government. Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi supported rebel factions.

The International Rescue Committee estimated in 2008 that 5.4 million people died between 1998 and 2007, most from disease and malnutrition caused by the collapse of health systems. A 2010 study published in The Lancet put the death toll at 2.7 million between 1998 and 2004 alone. Either estimate makes it the deadliest conflict since World War II.

The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, signed in July 1999, was meant to end the war. It did not. The Global and All-Inclusive Agreement, signed in December 2002, led to elections in 2006 but no peace in the east. Joseph Kabila, who succeeded his assassinated father in 2001, ruled until 2019. Under his tenure, the minerals kept flowing, the militias kept killing, and the international community kept deploying peacekeepers who could not keep the peace.

MONUSCO: $1 Billion Per Year, No Security

The United Nations has had peacekeepers in Congo since 1999. The mission, known as MONUC until 2010 and MONUSCO thereafter, is one of the largest and most expensive in UN history. At its peak in 2012, it deployed 20,000 troops. Its annual budget in 2023 was $1.1 billion.

It has not stopped the killing. In July 2022, protests erupted in Goma and Butembo demanding MONUSCO's withdrawal. Demonstrators accused peacekeepers of watching massacres happen and doing nothing. At least 36 people were killed in the protests, including three UN peacekeepers. A Human Rights Watch investigation published in September 2022 found that MONUSCO forces in Butembo had fired live ammunition into crowds of unarmed demonstrators.

In November 2023, the Congolese government and the UN agreed to a phased withdrawal of MONUSCO, to be completed by the end of 2026. As of April 2026, the mission has withdrawn from South Kivu but remains in North Kivu, where M23 controls large territories. No replacement security force has been announced.

The Supply Chain: From Mine to iPhone

The minerals extracted from eastern Congo's conflict zones enter global supply chains with striking ease. A 2021 investigation by The Sentry, a U.S.-based advocacy group, traced coltan from M23-controlled mines in North Kivu to smelters in Malaysia and China, and from there to manufacturers supplying Apple, Samsung, and Tesla. None of the companies could verify the origin of the minerals.

The U.S. Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requires American companies to disclose whether their products contain conflict minerals from Congo. A 2023 audit by the Enough Project found that 78 percent of the 1,200 companies filing disclosures reported being "unable to determine" the origin of their tantalum, tin, tungsten, or gold. Enforcement is nearly nonexistent. The Securities and Exchange Commission has issued zero penalties for noncompliance.

Rwanda has become a major exporter of coltan and gold despite having almost no deposits of either mineral. In 2022, Rwanda exported 1,850 metric tons of coltan, worth approximately $185 million, according to Rwandan National Bank data. The UN Group of Experts estimates that at least 95 percent of this coltan was mined in Congo and smuggled across the border into Rwanda, where it was relabeled as Rwandan and sold to international buyers.

M23's Return and Regional Escalation

The M23 rebel group first emerged in 2012, led by Bosco Ntaganda, a Rwandan-backed Congolese Tutsi warlord who was later convicted of war crimes by the International Criminal Court. M23 was militarily defeated in 2013 and its fighters fled to Rwanda and Uganda. In November 2021, it returned. Within three months, it had captured Bunagana, a strategic border town, and begun advancing toward Goma, the provincial capital.

By March 2024, M23 controlled an estimated 3,500 square kilometers of North Kivu, including the Rubaya coltan mines and the town of Sake, 27 kilometers west of Goma. In February 2024, the African Union deployed a regional force to support the Congolese army. It withdrew in December 2024 after failing to dislodge M23 from any territory.

On January 27, 2026, the Luanda Process—a mediation effort led by Angola—collapsed after Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi refused to meet with Kagame unless Rwanda withdrew troops from Congo. Rwanda has denied having troops in Congo. Satellite imagery, UN reports, and witness testimony say otherwise.

The Human Toll: Rape as a Weapon

Sexual violence is endemic in eastern Congo. The UN Population Fund estimates that 1.7 million women and girls were raped between 2011 and 2023 in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri. Armed groups use rape strategically to terrorize communities, displace populations, and assert control over mining areas.

Dr. Denis Mukwege, a Congolese gynecologist who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 for treating rape survivors, has documented more than 60,000 cases of sexual violence at Panzi Hospital in Bukavu since 1999. In a March 2026 interview with Le Monde, he said the violence has escalated since M23's resurgence. "We are seeing gang rapes involving 10, 15, sometimes 20 men. We are seeing genital mutilation. This is not opportunistic violence. This is systematic."

The International Criminal Court has convicted three Congolese warlords—Thomas Lubanga, Bosco Ntaganda, and Germain Katanga—of war crimes committed in eastern Congo. None of the foreign governments or multinational corporations that profited from the conflict have faced prosecution.

What Comes Next

There is no peace process. The Luanda talks have stalled. MONUSCO is withdrawing. The Congolese army, underfunded and demoralized, controls less territory in North Kivu today than it did in 2021. M23, backed by Rwanda, is expanding. Other armed groups—the Allied Democratic Forces, Codeco, Zaïre, and the Mai-Mai militias—continue to operate with impunity.

The minerals continue to flow. The global demand for cobalt and coltan is rising, driven by the electric vehicle transition. Congo has the cobalt. Rwanda has the smuggling infrastructure. China has the smelters. The West has the customers.

In Goma, Justine Masika continues to document atrocities and demand accountability. She knows it will not come. "The world knows what is happening here," she told researchers in March. "The question is not whether they know. The question is whether they care."